Sunday, October 25, 2015

INDIA'S EXTERNAL DEBT: DOLLAR-DENOMINATED OR RUPEE-DENOMINATED


By: R. vashistha
26th oct, 2015.

Our external debts could be dollar-denominated or Rupee denominated.If our external debts are in dollars, we receive debts in dollars and we need to pay interest and principal-sums in dollars. if our external debts are in Rupee we receive in Rupee and pay in Rupee.
Dollar- denominated debts are riskier than Rupee-denominated debts. Let us understand why this is so.
Suppose we take one year loan in dollars-terms from U.S at 10% of interest rate.Loan amount is $ 100 and prevailing exchange rate is RS.65 per dollar( $1= RS.65). At the end of the year we need to pay $100 as principal + $10 as interest =$110. At prevailing exchange rate it would cost us 65 multiplied with 110 = RS. 7150.
If in a year India's currency depreciates against U.S dollar and new exchange rate becomes RS.70 per dollar( $1=RS.70), we would be at disadvantage. To settle our debt in new situation we would shell out RS.7700( 70 times 110). This amount is more than before when exchange rate was RS. 65 a dollar. Depreciation of currency makes our external debt costlier. This is called exchange rate risk of foreign debt.
However, such risk is not involved in Rupee-denominated debt. In fact, in such type of loan exchange rate risk is diverted to creditors. Let us understand how this becomes possible.
Suppose we take RS. 100 as  loan from U.S in Rupee at 10% of annual interest rate. And, exchange rate is RS.65  dollar. At the end of the year, we would pay RS.110. Even if Rupee depreciates to RS.70 per dollar we need to pay only RS. 110. So, if our  external debts are Rupee-denominated , there is no risk of currency depreciation.
The risk of our currency depreciation has been shifted to U.S. which is at disadvantage if Indian Rupee depreciates from 65 to 70 per dollar.
When exchange rate is 65 per dollar, receiving RS. 110 from India by U.S means receiving $ 1.69 ( 110 divided by 65). When exchange rate is 70 per dollar, receiving RS. 110 from India by U.S means receiving $ 1.57 (110 divided by 70). Clearly, The U.S is at a loss due to depreciation of currency.
India’s 60 % of external debt is Dollar-denominated and only 24% of debt is Rupee- denominate.
                                                                               


Saturday, October 17, 2015

REVISED WEIGHTS : CPI


The government of India revised the base year of the All India Consumer Price Index series from 2010: 100 to 2012: 100 starting with the January 2015 reading. The first date based on the revised series was released on February 12, 2015. The weights of the sub-components with in the new CPI basket are based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) of 2011-12, against the old/current basket individual weights based on CES of 2004-05. Revised weights of different groups of commodities are given in the following table:

Revised Series of CPI (Base CES 2011-12)
Groups
Rural
Urban
Combined
Food and Beverages
Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants
Clothing and Footwear
Housing
Fuel and Light
Miscellaneous
54.18
3.26
7.36

7.94
27.26
36.29
1.36
5.57
21.67
5.58
29.53
45.86
2.38
6.53
10.07
6.84
28.32
Total
100.00
100.00
100.00

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

MODEL QUESTIONS (ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT) MAINS-2015


MODEL QUESTIONS (CIVIL SERVICES MAINS EXAM – 2015)
GS – III (ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT)
BY :- R. Vashistha
1.       Solar energy holds the key to power problem in India. Critically evaluate the various policies and schemes recently launched by GOI to boost solar energy production. Also discuss major impediments to the growth of this sector.

2.       Critically examine the impact of full convertibility of capital Account on Indian economy. Do you think India is well-positioned now to implement this ? Give reasons in support of your view.


3.       Public investment or capital formation in agricultural sector has more potential to enhance productivity and value addition than the provision of farm subsidy. Explain this statement in context of Indian agriculture and also discuss  causes and magnitude of decline in public investment in agricultural sector.

4.       Instead of reducing disparity of income, government budget has accentuated the gap between the rich and the poor significantly. Write a critical note on the role of GST in reducing income inequality and controlling inflation in India.


5.       Indian start-ups can write success stories in terms of value-addition, employment generation and poverty-alleviation in India. Discuss various hurdles faced by them in realizing their true potential. Also discuss measures that should be taken by the capital market regulator, SEBI and government to promote such start-ups.

6.       Economic growth is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for economic development. explain.


7.       At the one end India is sitting at the cusp of digital revolution, we have a huge deficiency in skill and enabling-infrastructure which may dampen the impact of digital revolution. Discuss policies and strategies of the government to remove these hurdles to realize benefits of digital revolution.

8.       Do you think that the insurance schemes such as PMJJBY & PMNSBY launched by GOI at a very low rate of premium would deter private  insurance companies, which would have a long-term adverse impact on insurance-penetration in India ? Give reasons in support of your view.


9.       The Socio-Economic & Caste Census (SECC) 2011, recently released by GOI, paints rural India in a poor light and is a grim reminder of rural poverty and exclusion. Explain how programmes like Digital India and Make in India can bring about rural development and transformation.

10.   A comprehensive land reform in India should address the overarching concerns of ecology, food-production, livelihood and allocation of land for industry and developmental purpose. To what extent and how the present draft of National Land Utilisation policy fulfill these requirements ? also state reasons for delay in its enactment.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

GOODS & SERVICES TAX ( GST)

By: Vashistha Ray
There has been an inordinate delay in moving towards a new era of indirect –tax regime. The new indirect –tax system, called GST, is expected to open a window of opportunity of growth and prosperity.
 The introduction of the GST would be a milestone in the field of indirect tax reforms in India. By subsuming a large number of central and state taxes into a single tax, it would mitigatecascading or double taxation in a major way and pave the way for a common national market.
       From the consumer’s point of view, the biggest advantage would be in terms of a reduction in the overall tax burden on goods and services. For instance, if we go to a restaurant now, we bear the burden of sales tax (VAT) as well as service tax. After the introduction of GST we would be required to pay a single -rate GST.
Introduction of the GST is also expected to make Indian products competitive in domestic and international markets. Studies show that this would instantly spur aggregatedemand and economic growth. Because of its transparent character, it is expected that the GST would be easier to administer.
The broad features of the proposed GST model are as follows:
(i)  GST would be applicable on supply of goods or services as against the present concept of tax on the manufacture (Exciseduty) or on sale of goods ( Sales Tax) or on provision of services( ServiceTax).
(ii) GST would be a destination-based tax as against the present concept of origin-based tax.
(iii) It would be a dual GST with the centre and the states simultaneously levying it on a common base. The GST to be levied by the centre would be called central GST (CGST) and that to be levied by the states would be called state GST (SGST).
(iv) An integrated GST(IGST) would be levied on inter-state supply (including stock transfers) of goods or services. This wouldbe collected by the centre so that the credit chain is not disrupted.
(v) Import of goods or services would be treated as inter-state supplies and would be subject to IGST in addition to the applicable custom duties.
(vi) A non-vatable additional tax, notexceeding 1 percent on inter-state supply of goods would be levied by thecentre and retained by the originating state at least for a period of two years.
(vii) CGST, SGST, and IGST would be levied at rates to be recommended by the Goods and Services Tax Council (GSTC) which will be chaired by the Union Finance Minister and will have Finance Ministers of states as its members.
(viii) GST would apply to all goods and services except alcohol for human consumption.
(ix)  GST on petroleum products would be applicable from a date to be recommended by the GST Council.
(x)  Tobacco and tobacco products would be subject to the GST. In addition, the centre could continue to levy central excise duty.
(xi) A common threshold exemption would apply to both CGST and SGST. Taxpayers with a turnover below would be exempt from GST. A compounding option (i.e. to pay tax at a flat rate on turnover without credits would be available to small taxpayers below a certain threshold.However, a taxable person falling within the limit of threshold or compoundingcould opt to pay tax at the normal rate in order to be part of the input taxcredit chain.
(xii) The list of exempted goods and services would be kept to a minimum and it would be harmonized for the centre and statesas far as possible.
(xiii  Exports would be zero-rated.
(xiv)Credit of CGST paid on inputs may be usedonly for paying CGST on the output and the credit of SGST paid on input may beused only for paying SGST. In other words, the two streams of input tax credit(ITC) cannot be cross utilized, except in specified circumstances ofinter-state supplies, for payment of (IGST).

Over the past four decades, the value added tax (VAT) has been an important instrument of indirect taxation, with 130 countries having adopted it, resulting in one-fifth of theworld’s tax revenue. Tax reform in many of the developing countries has focused on moving to VAT. FEDERAL COUNTRIES LIKE Canada, New Zealand, and Australia have successfully adopted the GST into their structure. Implementation of a comprehensive GST in India is expected, ceteris paribus, to lead to efficientallocation of factors of production thus bringing about gain in GDP andexports. This would translate into enhanced economic welfare and higher returns to the factors of production, viz. land, labour, and capital. However, in the near term, as GST replaces a number of state-level and central taxes, revenue gains may not be significant.

Saturday, May 30, 2015

CONVERTIBILITY OF CURRENCY : EASY ACCESS TO FOREX


 Vashistha Ray
Convertibility of currency (Rupee) implies freedom to convert our currency into foreign currency at market exchange rate without limit and government permission. It means our freedom to buy foreign currency in any amount at market-exchange rate .it also implies our freedom to sell Indian rupee against foreign exchange. Under convertibility of currency, those who have foreign currencies can get them converted into Indian rupee and vice-versa at market rate of exchange.
                Convertibility of currency is necessary to promote foreign trade and capital flours among nations. Without convertibility of currency, foreign trade and capital flows can not take place among different countries of the world. It is also required t o promote tourism and movement of people across globe.

EXCHANGE CONTROL
Exchange control implies lack of freedom to convert our currency into foreign currency at market rate of exchange. It means restriction or prohibition on acquiring foreign exchange without government permission. Under exchange control, people are not allowed or allowed in a limited way to buy foreign currency at market exchange rate, what so ever the purpose may be.
                India pursued a policy of exchange control for a longer period of time, despite the fact that India had been one of the founding members of the IMF which aims to remove exchange control and promote multi-lateral payment system.
                In Pre-reform period (before 1991) the government exercised exchange control using FERA provisions and imposing restrictions as foreign trade and capital flows. Imports were controlled and imports of “unnecessary” goods were not allowed. All external payments had to be made through the authorized dealers of RBI and exports earnings had to be surrendered to RBI to obtain rupee in return.
                Exchange control was exercised by the government in order to prevent the wasteful uses of foreign currencies and put them to the purchase/ import of capital goods (plants & machines) from other countries, So that the production capacity of our economy could be augmented.
                However, the policy of exchange control made importers, exporters and general people miserable. Restriction  on imports deprived the citizen of the country of a variety of goods and services. Exporters had to give up their earned foreign currency to government at a very low value in exchange for rupee. And, the general people could not make frequent trips to foreign countries for want of foreign exchange.

PARTIAL CONVERTIBILITY OF THE RUPEE ON CURRENT A/C
During 1992-93, the Government of India introduced dual exchange rate system. Under this system:
(a)    The GOI accepted the existence of two exchange rates in the country- the official rate of exchange (which was controlled) and the market rate of exchange (which was free to move and fluctuate according to market conditions).
(b)   All foreign exchange earned either through exports or through remittances were allowed to be converted is the following manner.
-          60 percent of the export earning could be converted at the free market determined rate: and this amount could be freely used for current A/c transaction and payments (i.e for import of goods, remittances, trade etc.)
-          40 percent of the export earning should be sold to RBI through authorized dealers at the official rate of exchange; this amount of foreign exchange would be made available by RBI for financing preferred and bulk imports, such as plant & machinery.
The Introduction of dual exchange rate system paved the way for the partial convertibility of rupee. This enabled the exports to convert at least 60% of their export earning at the market rate of exchange which was much higher than the official exchange rate.
                Before the introduction of dual exchange rate system, all export earnings were required to be converted into rupee at official rate of exchange which was very low.

FULL CONVERTIBILITY OF THE RUPEE ON CURRENT A/C
The partial convertibility of the rupee boosted India’s exports and our foreign currency reserve increased from $5.8 billion to  $25.2 billion between 1990-91 and 1994-95.
                However, the incentive was not sufficient to promote exports and increase foreign exchange reserve to a significant degree. The existence of the partial convertibility of the rupee hurt exporters and Indians working abroad who had to surrender 40 percent of their earnings at the official rate which was lower that market rate.
                It was to remove this defect, the then Finance Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh announced full convertibility of rupee on trade account in March 1993 while presenting the budget for 1993-94.
                Full convertibility of Rupee on trade account implies that now Indian exporters and people working abroad could convert their 100 percent earning at market rate of exchange. It also means that these earning could be freely used for import payments. Importers could also convert Indian rupee in any quantity into foreign currency to make import payments without government permission.
                Full convertibility of rupee on trade A/c was a solid step towards full convertibility of the rupee on current A/c , which was announced by the GOI on 28th Feb 1994. With the full convertibility of Indian Rupee on current A/c, now rupee has become fully convertible into foreign currencies for all current transactions such as export, import, foreign travel, education, medical expenses and remittances etc.

CONVERTIBILITY OF RUPEE ON CAPITAL A/C
Current A/c consists of all transactions of current nature such as export and imports of goods and services, foreign travel, education, medical expenses and remittances. Capital A/c consists of all financial transactions of long-term nature among countries of the world. It includes external lending or borrowing, inflows and outflows of FDI/FPI, NRI deposits etc. freedom to convert rupee into foreign currencies and vice-versa at market rate of exchange for these purpose is called convertibility of rupee on capital A/c.
                Thus, under capital A/c convertibility, those who bring in foreign capital to lend or invest in Indian market (FDI/FPI) can freely convert their currencies into Indian rupee. Likewise, interest, return or dividend earned through these investment can be converted back into foreign currencies and sent back to foreign countries. Indian people, institutions and firms can also freely convert Indian rupee into foreign currencies in order to invest or level in foreign countries.
BENEFITS: -
Convertibility of rupee on capital A/c removes all barriers on international flow of capital. Inflow and outflow of capital becomes rapid and frequent. The benefits of CAC can be listed as below:-
i.                     Availability of large funds to supplement domestic resources and there by promote economic growth.
ii.                   Improved access to international financial markets and reduction in cost of capital.
iii.                  Incentives for Indians to acquire and hold foreign securities & Assets.
PROBLEMS: - 
i.                     Convertibility of a currency makes it highly volatile. Further, operates by speculators make it more volatile. When a currency depreciates due to speculative activity, the confidence in the economy is shaken and this is capital flight from the country. Inflow of capital is also discouraged as due to depreciation of the currency profitability of investment in the economy is also adversely affected.
ii.                   Since market rate of exchange is higher than official exchange rate, imports of essential commodities become costlier.
iii.                  The real benefits of CAC in terms of more inflow of capital occur when currency is appreciated. But appreciation of currency leads of erosion in competitiveness of Indian exports, resulting in wider CAD.

CAPITAL ACCOUNT CONVERTIBILITY (CAC) : TARAPORE COMMITTEE (1997)
When the convertibility of the rupee on the current accou8nt was successful and when RBI accumulated over $25 billion forex reserves it was ready to take the next of India appointed in 1997 the Committee on capital account convertibility with Mr. S.S. Tarapore, former Deputy Governor of RBI, as its chairman. The Tarapore Committee defined CAC as “the freedom to convert local financial assets with foreign financial assets and vice-versa at market determined rates of exchange”.

PRECONDITIONS FOR CAC
                The Tarapore Committee recommended that, before adopting CAC, India should fulfill three crucial preconditions :
(i)                  Fiscal deficit should be reduced to 3.5 percent. The Government should also set up a consolidated sinking fund (CSF) to reduce Government debt.
(ii)                The Government should fix the annual inflation target between 3 and 5 percent – this was called mandated inflation target – and give ful freedom to RBI to use monetary weapons to achieve the inflation target.
(iii)               The Indian financial sector should be strengthened – for this, interest rates should be fully deregulated, gross non-paying assets (NPAs) should be reduced to 5 percent, the average effective CRR  should be reduced to 3 percent and weak banks should either be liquidated or be merged with other strong banks
A part from these three essential pre-conditions, the Tarapore Committee also recommended that :
(a)    RBI should have a monitoring exchange rate band of 5 percent around Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and should intervene only when the REER is outside the band;
(b)   The size of the current account deficit should be within manageable limits and the debt service ratio should be gradually reduced from the present 25 percent to 20 percent of the export earnings ;
(c)    To meet import and debt service payments forex reserves should be adequate and range between $ 22 billion and $ 32 billion ; and
(d)   The Government should remove all restrictions on the movement of gold.
The major difficulty with the Tarapore Committee recommendation was that it would like the CAC to be achieved in a 3 year period -1998 to 2000. The period was too short and the pre-conditions and the macroeconomic indicators could not be achieved in such a short period.
        Basically, the committee failed to appreciate the political instability in the country at that time, and the complete absence of political will and vision to carry forward the process of economic reforms and economic liberalization. The outbreak of Asian financial crisis at this time was also responsible for shelving the recommendation of Tarapore Committee.

SECOND TARAPORE COMMITTEE ON FULLER CAPITAL ACCOUNT CONVERTIBILITY
                RBI constituted the “Committee on fuller Capital Account convertibility” with S.S Tarapore again as chairman. The Tarapore Committee submitted its report in September 2006 (more commonly called the Second Tarapore Report or Tarapore II).
RECOMMENDATIONS
                As a fresh move, the Tarapore II has made many important recommendations.
                The Tarapore II contends that capital outflows by residents, corporate and banks are a strong confidence building measure but at the same time the Committee asserts that net inflows should not drop. In this connection, the Tarapore II has suggested that :
(a)    The distinction between non-resident Indians (NRIs) and foreigners be narrowed down;
(b)   Foreign corporate to be allowed to invest in Indian equity and debt; this will  help to deepen the Indian stock market ;
(c)    Multilateral institutions and corporate to be allowed to raise Rupee Bonds in India subject to overall upward mobile ceiling ;
(d)   Liberal external commercial borrowings to be  permitted by corporate (i) with the removal of cap on 10 year loans and (ii) raising the automatic approval of such loans to $ 1 billion by 2011;
(e)    Import-linked short term loans should be monitored in a comprehensive manner; however, the over-all limit of external commercial borrowings (ECB) should be gradually raised but keeping (i) the cap 4 18 billion, and (ii) automatic approval limit of up to $ 500 million for an entity for the year 2006-07.
These suggestions were accepted and were being implemented by the RBI and Finance Ministry. However, Tarapore II has made two radical suggestions, which may be accepted by RBI but may be rejected by the Finance Ministry. They are:
Ban Participatory Notes (PNs)
Discriminating Treaties Should Go
Even nine years after the submission of Tarapore II committee report, capital account convertibility is yet to see the light of the day. We have only partial convertibility of Rupee on capital account. However, with the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and minister of finance for states Jayant Sinha advocating for its early implementation, a new hope has been rekindled. Is India really ready for integrating herself with the rest of the world through CAC?
Vashistha Ray.